Tampa Bay Rays

TAMPA BAY RAYS


The Rays are this years- last years Rockies. They had a great season last year, made the World Series, only to be stomped by the opposition. Their youth movement was their strength, led by Evan Longoria and surprising pitching performances by Andy Sonnanstine and Matt Garza. Their pitching staff stayed mostly in place with the exception of Edwin Jackson (14 Wins) being traded to Detroit for.....Matt Joyce? Hopefully that move was to make room for David Price's coming out party. BJ Upton had offseason shoulder surgery (that's never good), but the Rays wisely added depth by signing Pat Burrell ('08: .250, 33 HR 86 RBI 74 Runs) to bolster the lineup while Upton is out. I do believe the Rays will have another good season and they will definately contend, but their division is just too tough and I don't see them returning to the World Series.


A tool I've included in my projections is ABK( at bats per strikeout) and ABB( at bats per walk). I am also only projecting players who I feel should be drafted. So here's my projections:

Carlos Pena: Pena is an example of high risk- high reward. Sure he can rake, but he whiffs an awful lot. Carlos strikes out every 3 at bats. If your league penalizes for strikeouts, which most do, thast stat is very frustrating. He hit 46 HR's in '07, 31 in '08 and I'd say he'll hit 28-32 HR's this year. Pena is a .250 hitter and has 15 career stolen bases. ABK: 3 ABB: 5

Evan Longoria: Longoria was one of the main keys to the Rays success last year, coming up from the Minors and adding a spark to the offense. I think he will be significantly better this year after getting his toes wet last year. He struck out an awful lot (122 KO/ 46 BB) but I suspect his patience at the plate will improve this year. As a rookie, he hit .272 with 85 RBI's 67 Runs and 27 HR's in only 122 games. I'm looking at .295 110 RBI's 70 Runs and 35 HR's this year. Throw in 20 SB's as I believe he will run more this year than last (7 SB's) with more confidence. ABK:4 ABB:10

Carl Crawford: Crawford just can't seem to stay healthy lately. Whe he is playing, he's one of the top outfielders provided his speed on the basepaths. But every year his games played goes down ('05-156, '06-151, '07-143, '08-109). As a result he doesn't provide enough for his owners. He had 58 SB's in '06, but only 25 last year. His HR totals plummeted from 18 in '06 to 8 last year. However, Crawford has tremendous upside if healthy. I expect him to be back to around 140 games and almost full speed. The results will look something like .300 90 Runs 15 HR's 75 RBI's and 50-55 SB's. Solid year. ABK:7 ABB:15

Pat Burrell: One thing I can say about Burrell is he is the model of consistency. Overshadowed in Philly by Ryan Howard, Burrell quietly produced during his whole career. You can definately expect 155 games 30 HR's, 75 Runs, 90 RBI's but you can also put your money on his .250 AVG. He strikes out alot, but he will also draw alot of walks, so it's not so bad.
ABK:4 ABB:5

Dioner Navarro: Dioner is overlooked alot in fantasy but I think this year you will see him getting more respect. He has seen his stats increase every year and led the Rays in AVG last year. His stat line in '07: .227, 88 Hits, 19 2B's, 44 RBI's to .295, 126 Hits, 27 2B's and 54 RBI's. He has also become more patient at the plate as he has improved his K/BB ratio from 67/33 in '07 to 49/34 in '08. Batting in this lineup will definately not hurt Dioner. I expect another boost on his stat line. ABK:9 ABB:13

BJ Upton: Upton had offseason shoulder surgery and is only expected to miss the first week of the season. I have a hunch though that even if he does only miss a week or so, his production will suffer this year as his shoulder problems most likely return. I'm sure he'll be drafted somewhere in the third round, maybe 25th or so, but it won't be me who drafts him. Sure, later he's worth a pick because of his upside but I don't want someone to fill a bench spot on my roster. In '07 he had a tremendous year hitting .300, 86 Runs 24 HR's and 82 RBI's. However, playing in 16 more games in '08 his average dropped to .273, with 85 Runs, only 9 HR's and a meager 67 RBI's. Buyer beware. ABK:4 ABB:6

James Shields: Shields has really come into his own these last two years and made a name for himself. Although Scott Kazmir is said to be the "ace" of this club, I really believe it's Shields. Very consistent. Last year he went 14-8 with a 3.56 ERA and a 4-1 KK/BB ratio. This year he makes a big splash topping 15 wins and lowering his ERA to low 3.00 and whiffing 175 batters.


David Price: With the trade of Edwin Jackson, the emergence of David Price is coming. Price is a super highly touted pitcher who got very limited action last year although many experts said he would crack the rotation at some point. From what I saw of him in the 14.1 IP he got last year, I was very impressed. He gave up 9 hits, 4 BB's, 7.71 K/9, 1.93 ERA and a .93 WHIP. If he goes 35 games as a starter, I could see him topping 12 wins at least and striking out close to 200 batters. I would take a chance on Price to be a #2 or a solid #3 for your staff.


Dan Wheeler: I'm only including Wheeler because I don't believe Percival will be healthy this year yet again. Although Percival had 28 saves, he was on the 15 day DL 3 times. Wheeler filled in pretty well for him getting 13 saves and 5 wins. He may be the closer by mid-season. Also, look for Grant Balfour to steal some action. He is the best pitcher of the group but is designated as their setup man right now. The whole situation is a mess and you can't really rely on a Rays closer until they figure it out.


Team MVP: Evan Longoria Team LVP: BJ Upton