Toronto Blue Jays

TORONTO BLUE JAYS




The Blue Jays have some pieces to make a good team, but they just don't feel like living up to their potential. They compete for sure, but come up short way too many times. Just like the Orioles, they need to be in a different division to ever know their potential. Sure you gotta beat the best to be the best, but 18 games against the Yankees, 18 games against the Red Sox and 18 games against the Rays every year can sure screw up your record, while teams like the Dodgers get to play the Rockies, D-Backs, Padres and Giants 18 games apiece (No offense to those clubs, but c'mon). I can see them finishing above the Orioles and maybe even the Rays but just short the Yanks.

Rod Barajas: Not even average. undraftable. sucky.

Adam Lind: Lind has a bright future in the majors and this may be his year. If you are looking for an ultimate sleeper, he may be your man. He got a little more work under his belt last year and did pretty well once he got a handle on things. His only problem is he swings too much. I believe he's the straightest man on the planet because he's just alittle too afraid of balls. He's worth taking a chance on late in the draft as a potential stud. ABK:6 ABB:20

Scott Rolen: Put a fork in this guy. He went from a stud to not being able to crack 60 RBI's in an instant. He was outplayed by his backup, Marco Scutaro. He ranks about 33rd for a thirdbasemen to me.

Aaron Hill: I LOVE this guys potential this year. He could be a top 5 second baseman if he can stay healthy. He missed alot of time last year and upset alot of owners, but I truly see this guy getting it back together this year. In '07 he hit .291, 87 Runs, 17 HR's, and 78 RBI's. I expect a performance like that this year. Keep him in mind while drafting. ABK:7 ABB:15

Vernon Wells: Wells is another bounceback player this year. Injuries plagued him last year and he is just too good of a hitter to be bad. He only played in 108 games last year but he still scored 63 Runs, 78 RBI's and he batted .300. He also hit 20 HR's; he hit 16 the year before. He doesn't strikeout too much and he has raw power. I'd take a chance on him for sure. ABK:9 ABB:15

Alex Rios: Rios took a step back last year after being selected to his first All-Star Game. I guess it didn't help that he didn't have some key players for alot of the year. All of his stats took a dip but like I said about Aaron Hill and Vernon Wells, I expect a bounceback year. He's a good second or third outfielder, but by no means should he be your first option. ABK:6 ABB:14

Roy Halladay: I don't know what to say about this guy other than SOLID. He is definately one of the very first pitchers to go this year. He had an outstanding year last year and should do the same this year. He went 20-11, 2.78 ERA, 206 KO's (only 39 BB's), 1.05 WHIP, 9....that's right- 9 CG's and 2 shutouts. He should be somebody's #1 pitcher.

As for the rest of the rotation....I don't expect any of them to get drafted. The next best option is Jesse Litsch and that in itself is scary. The other four projected starters were a combined 22-22 last year with a 3.58 ERA. That my friends is what I call AVERAGE at best.

BJ Ryan is solid, and if he can be healthy all year, I'd say 35-40 saves.

Team MVP: Roy Halladay Team LVP: Scott Rolen

Baltimore Orioles

BALTIMORE ORIOLES



The Orioles have the toughest spot in all of baseball. They are underachievers who will never realize their potential because they play in the toughest division in all of baseball. The owners aren't willing to spend (unless your name is Mark Texiera) and ultimately, they will never be able to compete with the Yanks or Red Sox.

Aubrey Huff: Aubrey Huff is probably one of the most underrated players in the league because he plays for the O's. He has had some very good years, notably last year (.304 32 HR's, 48 2B's, 96 Runs and 106 RBI's). Now put someone like him on the Red Sox and it'd be scary to see what he could do. He will always be underpaid and overlooked, but of all the Orioles, he's the cream of the crop. He's another year older, but I expect him to remain solid and hover around the same numbers.
ABK:7 ABB:11

Brian Roberts: Roberts will do alot of everything for you (minus homeruns). In a thin second base position, he should be in the top four. He always is rumored to be traded and I have a feeling this will be the year as the O's find their way out of playoff contention early. Last year he scored 107 runs, knocked in 57 RBI's and stole 40 bases. He also had 8 triples, which is ridiculous. He will bat around .300 and be a very vital part of your team.

Melvin Mora: Mora is such a streaky player that he is only worth owning if you grab him off the waiver wire when he starts to get hot. Year in and year out he has these crazy spurts of greatness, but he has the coldness to level it out, and maybe even hurt you. Take last year for instance. From March to June, he batted .230, 10 HR's 39 RBI and 35 Runs. Then he got hot. In June, his average was .311, August- .418, and September .306. In those three months he hit 13 HR's, 65 RBI's and scored 42 times. He should go undrafted considering the quality depth at 3rd base. He could help at some point off the waiver wire. ABK:7 ABB:14

Nick Markakis: Markakis is connecting more with the baseball and is about ready to have his breakout year. Although Huff is the best producer on this team right now, Markakis is poised to breakout. He had somewhat of a down year last year but was still solid overall, considering his opportunities to produce on such a futile team. I can easily say with confidence that he will bat .300, knock in 100 runs and score 100 runs. I'll peg him for 30 Hr's also. ABK: 5 ABB: 6

For the rest of the team, I don't feel they are really draftable. At some point in the season they may be of help to you, like Adam Jones or Luke Scott, but overall- this team is headed for last place in their division. Their pitchers are sorry (none of the 5 projected starters had a winning record and combined for a 29-35 record). George Sherrill got a little recognition last year, but was really all hype. He had 31 saves, a 3-5 record and a whopping 4.73 ERA. I can tell you right now that that's way too high.

There is speculation that the Orioles will bring up highly touted minor leaguer Matt Wieters to play catcher but don't believe the hype or reach too high for him. I was able to get Longoria in almost the last round of every draft last year and he proved to be worth it. However, the Orioles will most likely sign a veteran catcher to start over their current starter, Guillermo Quiroz and his .187 AVG. Wieters could make the club, but I expect it to be much later in the season than people are saying.


Team MVP: Nick Markakis Team LVP: Pitchers

Tampa Bay Rays

TAMPA BAY RAYS


The Rays are this years- last years Rockies. They had a great season last year, made the World Series, only to be stomped by the opposition. Their youth movement was their strength, led by Evan Longoria and surprising pitching performances by Andy Sonnanstine and Matt Garza. Their pitching staff stayed mostly in place with the exception of Edwin Jackson (14 Wins) being traded to Detroit for.....Matt Joyce? Hopefully that move was to make room for David Price's coming out party. BJ Upton had offseason shoulder surgery (that's never good), but the Rays wisely added depth by signing Pat Burrell ('08: .250, 33 HR 86 RBI 74 Runs) to bolster the lineup while Upton is out. I do believe the Rays will have another good season and they will definately contend, but their division is just too tough and I don't see them returning to the World Series.


A tool I've included in my projections is ABK( at bats per strikeout) and ABB( at bats per walk). I am also only projecting players who I feel should be drafted. So here's my projections:

Carlos Pena: Pena is an example of high risk- high reward. Sure he can rake, but he whiffs an awful lot. Carlos strikes out every 3 at bats. If your league penalizes for strikeouts, which most do, thast stat is very frustrating. He hit 46 HR's in '07, 31 in '08 and I'd say he'll hit 28-32 HR's this year. Pena is a .250 hitter and has 15 career stolen bases. ABK: 3 ABB: 5

Evan Longoria: Longoria was one of the main keys to the Rays success last year, coming up from the Minors and adding a spark to the offense. I think he will be significantly better this year after getting his toes wet last year. He struck out an awful lot (122 KO/ 46 BB) but I suspect his patience at the plate will improve this year. As a rookie, he hit .272 with 85 RBI's 67 Runs and 27 HR's in only 122 games. I'm looking at .295 110 RBI's 70 Runs and 35 HR's this year. Throw in 20 SB's as I believe he will run more this year than last (7 SB's) with more confidence. ABK:4 ABB:10

Carl Crawford: Crawford just can't seem to stay healthy lately. Whe he is playing, he's one of the top outfielders provided his speed on the basepaths. But every year his games played goes down ('05-156, '06-151, '07-143, '08-109). As a result he doesn't provide enough for his owners. He had 58 SB's in '06, but only 25 last year. His HR totals plummeted from 18 in '06 to 8 last year. However, Crawford has tremendous upside if healthy. I expect him to be back to around 140 games and almost full speed. The results will look something like .300 90 Runs 15 HR's 75 RBI's and 50-55 SB's. Solid year. ABK:7 ABB:15

Pat Burrell: One thing I can say about Burrell is he is the model of consistency. Overshadowed in Philly by Ryan Howard, Burrell quietly produced during his whole career. You can definately expect 155 games 30 HR's, 75 Runs, 90 RBI's but you can also put your money on his .250 AVG. He strikes out alot, but he will also draw alot of walks, so it's not so bad.
ABK:4 ABB:5

Dioner Navarro: Dioner is overlooked alot in fantasy but I think this year you will see him getting more respect. He has seen his stats increase every year and led the Rays in AVG last year. His stat line in '07: .227, 88 Hits, 19 2B's, 44 RBI's to .295, 126 Hits, 27 2B's and 54 RBI's. He has also become more patient at the plate as he has improved his K/BB ratio from 67/33 in '07 to 49/34 in '08. Batting in this lineup will definately not hurt Dioner. I expect another boost on his stat line. ABK:9 ABB:13

BJ Upton: Upton had offseason shoulder surgery and is only expected to miss the first week of the season. I have a hunch though that even if he does only miss a week or so, his production will suffer this year as his shoulder problems most likely return. I'm sure he'll be drafted somewhere in the third round, maybe 25th or so, but it won't be me who drafts him. Sure, later he's worth a pick because of his upside but I don't want someone to fill a bench spot on my roster. In '07 he had a tremendous year hitting .300, 86 Runs 24 HR's and 82 RBI's. However, playing in 16 more games in '08 his average dropped to .273, with 85 Runs, only 9 HR's and a meager 67 RBI's. Buyer beware. ABK:4 ABB:6

James Shields: Shields has really come into his own these last two years and made a name for himself. Although Scott Kazmir is said to be the "ace" of this club, I really believe it's Shields. Very consistent. Last year he went 14-8 with a 3.56 ERA and a 4-1 KK/BB ratio. This year he makes a big splash topping 15 wins and lowering his ERA to low 3.00 and whiffing 175 batters.


David Price: With the trade of Edwin Jackson, the emergence of David Price is coming. Price is a super highly touted pitcher who got very limited action last year although many experts said he would crack the rotation at some point. From what I saw of him in the 14.1 IP he got last year, I was very impressed. He gave up 9 hits, 4 BB's, 7.71 K/9, 1.93 ERA and a .93 WHIP. If he goes 35 games as a starter, I could see him topping 12 wins at least and striking out close to 200 batters. I would take a chance on Price to be a #2 or a solid #3 for your staff.


Dan Wheeler: I'm only including Wheeler because I don't believe Percival will be healthy this year yet again. Although Percival had 28 saves, he was on the 15 day DL 3 times. Wheeler filled in pretty well for him getting 13 saves and 5 wins. He may be the closer by mid-season. Also, look for Grant Balfour to steal some action. He is the best pitcher of the group but is designated as their setup man right now. The whole situation is a mess and you can't really rely on a Rays closer until they figure it out.


Team MVP: Evan Longoria Team LVP: BJ Upton

Welcome

This is the first year I am doing this so I'd like to thank you for visiting. In the upcoming days I will be previewing each team and forecasting what I believe is in store for this year. After that, I will do my "Bold Predictions" followed by my player rankings by position. This is mostly for fun, so just bare with me. I am an avid player and very active owner and I will be sharing all of my advice to help you win your league.